The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be with you in Phoenix this morning. I must tell you though that I am a fervent San Francisco Giants fan, and I am still smarting from the way the Diamondbacks snatched the Western Division championship from us this year. But you invited me here to speak about the economy and the Federal Reserve. So I promise I’ll stick to my assigned subject for the rest of my remarks. I should note that these remarks represent my own views and not necessarily those of others in the Federal Reserve System.
The title of my talk is “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.” I’ll sketch for you my sense of where the economy is now, where it is going, and what the Fed is doing. As I see it, the story is one of slow recovery from an especially severe financial crisis and recession, painfully gradual progress on unemployment, and receding inflation. It is a story that calls for continued action by the Federal Reserve to support a fragile economy.
I’m happy to say that the most recent economic data offer signs that the recovery is on slightly firmer ground than it was earlier this year. Both consumers and businesses are increasing their spending at a moderate pace. This firming can be seen in the performance of gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the total output of goods and services in the economy. It was heartening to see that, in the July-through-September quarter, inflation-adjusted GDP grew at a rate that began with a two—2.5 percent to be exact. That growth rate was moderate at best and a far cry from the rapid expansion we’ve often seen after recessions. But it was significantly better than the number for the first half of 2011, which began with a zero.
Yet I’m afraid that this recent improvement doesn’t change the basic story. The recession of 2007 to 2009 ended nearly two-and-a-half years ago. But the recovery since then has been notably lackluster and seems likely to continue in that vein. In fact, for many people, the recovery hardly seems real at all. Unemployment has declined only about one percentage point from its peak, millions of homeowners have lost their homes to foreclosure, and many millions more are currently underwater.
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